Karnataka polls 2018: 3 reasons why BJP will rule in Karnataka

Almost all opinion polls predict a hung assembly in Karnataka. The BJP will probably form the next government, on its own or in collaboration with the Janata Dal[s].

  1. One reason is anti-incumbent sentiment, running strong in India right now. Anti-incumbency helped the BJP sweep Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand last year. Tripura, Nagaland, Manipur and Meghalaya. BJP enthusiasts interpret this as a pro-BJP wave. It is actually anti-incumbent wave. After all, the wave swept the incumbent BJP out of power in Punjab. Anti- incumbency signals that voters are fundamentally unhappy. This unhappiness is likely to oust the incumbent Congress in Karnataka.
  2. The second reason is that the BJP looks very different from the party that was thrashed in the 2013 state election. Then, the BJP had forced B.S. Yeddy-urappa to resign as chief minister along with the Reddy brothers because of their associations with the illegal mining scam. This resulted in the BJP splitting into three parts- the official party, Yeddyurappa’s splinter party, and a splinter led by B. Sriramulu, a tribal leader linked to the Reddy brothers. This BJP split helped the congress to win easily. But today the splinters have consolidated and have the added advantage of the charismatic leader in Narendra Modi.
  3. The third reason is money. The BJP is in power in 19 states and likely to win the general election next year. So it is flush with donations from those wanting to back a winning horse. The Congress party rules only two major states Punjab and Karnataka , has little chance of winning the next election, and therefore not attractive to business donors. This means it has milk Karnataka for funds, giving some credibility to the BJP.


Addressing an election rally in Tumakuru, Modi said JD[S] has been trying to save congress in the state and both have an internal arrangement. “They are only fooling people. While congress and JD[S] fight here in Tumakuru, their leaders in Bengaluru have made a pact and elected a mayor. The political thrust behind Modi’s reference on Saturday seemed to be intended at pitching BJP as the only viable alternative to voters disenchanted with congress.


Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave a new name to congress ‘PPP’, saying ‘ it will be reduced to Punjab, Puducherry and Gandhi Parivar ‘ after all Karnataka election results. Punjab and Puducherry are among the four states apart from Mizoram and Karnataka that are presently ruled by congress. “ After May 15[ the day of result], Indian National Congress will be reduced to ‘PPP congress’-P for Punjab , P for Puducherry and P for  Parivar , Modi said at the rally in Gadag.


Karnataka’s high stakes has literally brought political czars to the ground. Congress president Rahul Gandhi and BJP chief Amit shah will be first party president of the national parties to campaign in all 30 districts. Congress insiders say Rahul has created a record of sorts in the state political circuit by becoming the first party president to have covered 3500km touring the state. His campaign, in fact, has cracked several stereo-types associated with the congress’ high command’.

Amit shah too has aggressively toured the state.’ Party chief criss-cross the state during polls, but shah is the first national president to visit all districts and interact with grassroots cadre,” says BJP . Shah been vociferous in upping spirits of party workers and chose to operate on his own rather than go by feedback from state leaders on several decisions, including ticket distribution. Shah has made it clear that he and modi alone will call the shoots. In facts, he boosted party workers, confidence asking them all call him directly on any poll-related issue.

                                                   THE BIG NUMBERS   

Total candidates – 2,655

Women                – 219

Men                      – 2,436

Seats               -25

Total voters     – 4.9cr.

Men                   – 2.5cr.

Women            -2.4cr.


Prime Minister Modi will kick off BJP’S final assault on the Vokkaliga-dominated old Mysuru region on may-1, his third visit region in three months, where the fight has been largely between JD[s] and congress. Party chief Amit shah has done several rounds of old Mysuru, a weak link for the BJP. The area has a sizeable Tamil-speaking population and is a stronghold for HD Deve Gowda’s JD[S].


                                       CASH FOR VOTE, DBT STYLE

Jhan dhan accounts are proving quite handy in the poll season as account opened under the central scheme are being used directly transfer money to electors in exchange for votes. How it works: After collecting voters,’ bank details aides of a candidate call them and ask that they pledge their vote for rs.2000. A first instalment of rs.1000 is transferred immediately while the rest is promised after the may 15 results, provided the candidates win. The candidate does not transfer the money from his personal account but from the accounts of trusted workers.

  • The hot seat suddenly turned into a mild contest after Amit shah decided Yeddyurappa’s son Vijayendra will not get the ticket.
  • Congress nominee is Yathindra, doctor and younger son of Siddaramaiah, who won in 2008 and 2013.
  • Vijayendra’s backers paln to use NOTA to dent the BJP nominee’s chances.


Prime Minister Narendra Modi lashed out at congress chief Rahul Gandhi for ‘insulting’ PM H D Deve Gowda, indicating that BJP has kept the door open for rapprochement with Deve Gowda’s JD[S], which is expected to emerge as the kingmaker in case the elections throw up a hung assembly.

Recently, Rahul spoke disparagingly of JD[S] being the B team of BJP. Nothing that there might be political differences between parties. Modi said civility and respect should be maintained. “Whenever former PM H D Deve Gowda visit at delhi, Modi welcome him with respect and always gave him time. The way Rahul Gandhi spoke to him recently is shameful.” Said Modi.

Modi said ‘I have also accompanied H D Deve Gowda to the car when he left’s after meetings’ with him, the PM said adding that the disrespect , Congress leaders, Rahul in particular show towards Deve Gowda is not acceptable.

PM Modi reminded Rahul Gandhi that he just starting his political career and should imbibe civility as a virtue. “If such is their mindset [towards Deve Gowda] , how can they think good of the people of Karnataka?” the PM said. “ Rahul is insulting a person of the stature of Deve Gowda because of his haughtiness,” Modi said’ adding such people and parties are a threat to democracy.


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